Flagship Pod: What Red Hot Inflation Means For UsJul 18, 2022
Every single Thursday we host a live discussion in our Discord channel at 5:00pm EST.
This gives you the opportunity to ask us questions and hear our thoughts on the things you want answers to!
Here's what we went over:
What lower core (but higher overall) inflation means for the market
An outlook on what's to come for gas and oil prices
What stocks will and won't do well for the rest of the year
Politician insider trading and holdings report
Twitter/Elon drama & much more!
If you'd like to listen live and ask us questions throughout the next live session, just join the weekly Thursday afternoon session at 5:00pm EST.
To listen live next time, join our Discord here: Discord Channel
Check out the rest of the transcript below!
From Moby.co. This is the flagship pod, your weekly live podcast about the economy at the stock market and the various market forces powering the world around you. As always I'm your host, Peter Starr bringing you this time, honestly, it is a pretty wild time here in stock market land. We're thinking all about inflation, bear markets, and just the general markets mayhem. To take you through that to help you understand what's happening here as always I'm joined by Justin Kramer, CEO co-founder and chief analyst here at Moby.co. Justin, what's good, how's life over on your end of the spectrum?
Good. Obviously, there's a lot to unpack today, so I'm excited to dive into it, excited to give some updates, but obviously, I'm sure some people out there are slightly worried to say the least. So we are here to answer all on any questions and we'll dive into our agenda as well.
Exactly. Yeah. And it's just one of those things where everyone's just kind of a little bit freaked out, but the main questions we're getting honestly is that when that CPI number came in, again, inflation's coming in hot audience if you haven't been paying attention to the news. Yesterday, the CPI print came out at 9.1% being driven by a frankly staggering 60% increase in the price of gas, which is kind of trickling down to every other aspect of our economy. But basically, that just means that things are on average, 10% more expensive than more last year. And of course, gasoline is 60% more expensive than it was last year. An absolutely wild figure.
So the main thing is yesterday that didn't really drive the market down. We didn't really see much of a sell-off until today when we saw earnings from JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley, which we're going to get into in a second, but what's going on Justin? There were people pricing and inflation? When we're thinking about inflation, we're thinking about this overall bear cycle. How was the market beginning to parse it from your angle?
Yeah. So there's a lot to unpack right now with the inflation. I mean, it just keeps getting worse and worse and worse. Obviously numbers are going up, but the number one thing investors are really watching for is it increasing at a decreasing rate? So what I mean by that is if it's going from eight to nine, nine to 10, 10 to 11, yes, it's going up 1% each time, but on a percentage basis, it's actually starting to slow down. And so what we're seeing now is some parts of inflation start to slow down while other parts continue on. I mean, net effective, even though it's at 9%, a lot of things, energy weren't up super high. And the supply chains are starting to actually look to get slightly better. There's still a lot of room that needs to be fixed and things are still ridiculously expensive.
But I think the biggest thing to watch right now as always has been energy prices. For airfare specifically, it's actually not been as bad as people realize. Airlines are actually set to have one of their best quarters in decades, or if not within the last several years. They're able to pass on a lot of the costs to consumers, gas or jet fuel prices have remained relatively constant. And so airlines are going to actually have an amazing summer, especially with all the pent up demand. But inflation everywhere else is really being felt and I think for us to really get out of control, it's going to be much less of a how much money is the FED pumping into the economy, much more of a where we're getting all of our energy from, which is not being fixed anytime soon.
Exactly. Yeah. And it's one of those things too that's really important to keep in mind. This is June CPI data. So we're getting it in July, but it's from June. So the one weird tension here that's really important to keep in mind is that the CPI is a lagging indicator. Where-as the market is always forward looking. It's always looking ahead to the next thing. And frankly, we're seeing gas prices go up June wise, but then you look at gas prices actually now and oil prices, and those actually are going down between the end of June and the mid-July right here right now. So there's some encouraging signs, both inflation increasing at a decreasing rate and also the main driver of inflation that being energy prices going down, of course, that will be only a very brief reprieve. Probably there's still indications that oil could go way up potentially.
And there's a lot of other things that can lead to sort of downstream effects of energy being too high, like high energy prices now means high food prices later. It's such a complex issue, which is why no one really has an answer here. There's no turn off the inflation button. So the main thing the market is worried about now is the FED meeting at the end of this month. What do you think Justin is, is the FED going to stick to 75 basis points? Are we going to go full percent when we try to tackle this on the supply side?
I mean the market is definitely pricing and a better chance that it's going to be a full percent. Obviously the Fed's plan from day one has been more around the half percent level. And even though it sounds like small differences between 0.5 0.75 to one, for them to make a move like that signals a lot about how they feel about how global inflation is going. I think the market's pricing in there's a good chance it could happen. I mean, there's still some time left to see what ultimately comes of it. But I think recent data is going to ultimately dictate the decision. So to your point, gas prices, energy prices have gone up a ton, but in the last few weeks, they're starting to come down a bit. We'll see if this remains, but energy has been the number one issue.
And so while this is definitely not a local phenomenon and it's more of a global one, if things can start to come there and then things can start to deflate relatively well, it should help the FED. But I mean, I don't think anyone at this point is surprised to see them raise 1%, which again, I mean is just not doing well for the rest of the economy right now with the rising rates for helping out the market. I mean, we're just in such an interesting position where the outside of inflation, unemployment low, demands high, the actual economy is not that bad. If anything it's pretty good. The market and forward looking just returns assumptions on what's going to happen is what's scaring investors right now, but actually core economic output and things of that nature is really not that bad.
And that's the thing that really is baffling about this to a lot of people, because you kind of see inflation be politicized a lot. You see inflation be the focus of hot takes, right? Whereas the FED only really tackles things on the demand side. All interest rate hikes really do is flow down demand. So that's why you see the Fed's saying we kind of need unemployment to go up to tackle this because that's the only tool in their toolbox. Whereas this is a bizarre case of supply side inflation, where all of the reverberating chaos from COVID and the Ukraine invasion is just constantly ricocheting around the economy. Jerome Powell can't make gas prices go down. We can't increase our refining capacity that fast. I mean, it's happening, you're seeing heroic effort by workers all across sort of like the Southeast in New Jersey and Texas everywhere, sort of getting our refining capacity back up to snuff, but that's still going to take time in order to bring gas prices down.
And that's the specific thing because of just how much energy permeates everything and the natural gas is the other big issue, which is going to be huge for fertilizer, which is going to be huge for food. So while the FED can do everything it can to basically slow the U.S. economy down enough that nobody's demanding all the things we need from energy, we're going to see a lot of pain on the energy side for a good bit here. So it's interesting to see the market price that in yesterday, what's amazing though, is watching other situations, we're seeing interest rates rise, but things that should happen during that aren't necessarily happening. And that's a good segue into sort of like the first real bear indicator of this week, which came this morning when JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley came out with not necessarily the best earnings reports, which almost immediately drove the market down at open.
For the past two weeks, we've kind of trended back into non bear territory in the S&P 500 and then good old Jamie Diamond knocked us right back down, right back into bear territory, putting us right back into reality or whatever, as people are starting to come to terms with the fact that, oh, aren't banks supposed to do welding inflation? Did you get a chance to look at these earnings reports, Justin, what's going on in terms of banks having reduced revenue during a period where they should have higher fees because of higher interest rates?
The thing that's hard right now for a lot of these banks is that inflation is at 40 year highs. And so while that makes exactly your point, rates go up and then they're able to make more on loans, the rate at which rates are going up, the rate at which inflation going up is doing two things that are causing some harm. The first is that it's just slowing down overall loan activity. When rates rise steadily, loans can continue, it can increase their profit margin, but when you see rates for 30 year mortgages or whatever the line of credit they're extending is just go up so substantially, it definitely slows down their overall volume. The second is that this is what people aren't talking about, is that inflation makes credit losses really hard to estimate. So things get really expensive.
People who have existing loans at a decent rates can't afford to pay they default. And so those credit losses end up hurting banks more than people originally anticipated. And that widens the spread on what people are anticipating back on their returns from the banks. And that's why the risk rewards skew so high. So basically investors and ultimately then the management teams of the bank, just with the inflation at this high, they just don't know how it's going to impact individual bank, corporate loan portfolios, and they're still seeing historically low just net charge off ratios. So we really probably expect on the consumer side of the business that losses will end up having increasing losses. So what I mean by that is whatever baseline level losses are, and it's going to end up probably being worse, which ultimately hurts that credit losses that I was referring to before, but what's really less clear for us and for most investors, and I think this is where the skepticism is coming from, is the trajectory of higher end consumer credit quality.
So this is all like subprime, these are as soon as things get worse, these people default. What we haven't seen yet is for people who have really high credit, whether it be consumers or even corporate institutions, do they default on their own or they wait to their payments, people who are historically thought of as really good lenders, how are they going to be affected with inflation at 40 year highs? That's what we haven't seen yet. And that's what's scaring investors. So once we get some clarity there over the next several months, it depends on how the data skews out. But I think that'll give a lot of ease around banks specifically, but I think the long term outlook for them is still as strong as ever frankly.
And that's another thing you can see in these earnings reports too, to the credit of these banks, but they're taking sort of a short-term hit because a lot of their revenues are being impacted by them reserving a lot money for what they expect to be a bunch of defaults coming down. Then expecting higher interest rates basically slowing down the economy to the point where unemployment will go up, where people will kind of have reduced income for a lot. There's going to be half a billion dollars worth of defaulted loans or whatever Jamie Diamond said during the JP Morgan earnings call this morning, something around that number. So the main thing is it's good to see that we're not going to have a credit crunch so to speak, like financial crisis part two electric [inaudible 00:11:11].
This is again, the first real recession we've seen since the year 2000, every other downturn we saw, especially in my generation has been due to an actual catastrophe, whether that be financial or biological. So it's going to be really interesting to see how the slow burn real recession plays out as we sort of correct our way through these interesting times. Of course, today was supposed to be a buffer against a higher CPI. We kind of expected at least a little bit better earnings from banks. The real party's going to kick off next week on July 20th when Meta starts the earning season for big tech, and that's going to continue until the following week with Microsoft on July 28th.
But you're going to have basically every big tech company in America have their earnings calls within that seven day period. Is this one of those situations where we're still on the column before the storm, so to speak, we saw valuation compression last quarter, is this where we're going to finally see earnings compression? Or is that not going to be priced in yet? What do you think, Justin? I know it's a prediction thing, we can talk about it way more next week once we start seeing the actual fallout. But what are your thoughts there in terms of how tech companies typically perform during these kind of recessionary bear markets, inflationary situations?
Yeah, it's really interesting to say. I mean, chances are outside of even how they perform people start to caution the management teams, which will ultimately scare investors. So I think there's a good chance regardless of whatever the actual results are, the forward looking expectations are going to be substandard to a certain effect, which will ultimately skew investor perception downward. But if you're looking at the actual results over the last quarter, I don't see them drastically changing. A lot of, again, what we're seeing is really due to fear for forward-looking expectations. So if we're seeing a slowdown in spending because of that, yes, tech companies will be hit. And I think that's largely priced into this point, but it depends really and this is where you start getting into sector by sector and then company by company, who is core paramount to spending and who's not.
So if you look at AWS and GCP and a lot of these cloud based platforms, slow down spending is probably not likely there. But if you look at advertising budgets, marketing budgets of most major companies, that's where things start slowing down. So Facebook, Meta, Google, we might start seeing a slow down in their revenue because people are starting to be cautious. So we just on the tech side of things, have to look at it sector by sector, company by company, even look at the last recessions, how they fared, and I think this is probably a good segue into other tech companies we going to cover. But ultimately it really is a case-by-case basis.
Absolutely. This is going to be the era of comparison, right? Because we have to remember the stock market doesn't sometimes look at objective truth and also looks at how you are comparing to the market. That's why tech company evaluations skyrocketed over the past 10 years. They were pulling down revenue and scaling at such a pace that it was easy for these absolutely insane price to earnings ratios to be justified by the market for such a long period of time. People have always kind of dragged on Tesla for being this bizarre anti-gravity stock, but if you looked at the pace at which it was scaling in the simplicity of its supply chains compared to competitors, it made a lot of sense, at least on that side. I mean, Lord knows what Tesla's evaluation is going to go down, is going to go from here with the whole Elon Musk drama.
We'll get into that a little bit later, but we still are looking for those little moments where during inflation, during bear markets, what kind of these plays can still have a strong showing, which is why just in our research will be posted yesterday is really exciting to me. It's really exciting to find value moments within these recessionary times. And I'm specifically just discussing our analysis of the match group, which has a lot of really good fundamentals and a lot of really unfair short term headwinds right now, which we can get into. You can also go to Moby.co and check out that analysis, but can you kind of tell me ... Can you kind of take me through Justin sort of our thoughts in terms of why online dating companies do well, even during recessions? What's the thesis here?
Yeah. So there are certain sectors that like typically do well in recessionary periods. So like alcohol is thought to do really well in recessionary periods. Not thought it's known to do well in recessionary periods. Makeup and beauty companies do really well in recessionary periods and something that's less tested, but something that we have been seeing personally that we don't think investors are calling out or a lot of these dating companies and just dating in general and how does that fair during a recession? And so Match Group is a company out there that pretty much owns most of the dating space. And if you're not familiar with them, they have Match.com, they have Tinder, they have Hinge, they have a bunch of names in their portfolio. They've actually performed really well during recessionary periods. And so while they did go public in 2015, which is post-recession, they did report their numbers during the last two kind of pullbacks.
And what we saw was that while most companies were losing money, they actually were still making money pretty well. Growth for them slowed down, but they were still growing, which was really important. Whereas most other companies are losing users, they're losing revenue growth. They kept it up, so we've kind of looked at those last two periods and have come to the conclusion that for them and other dating companies, that it's kind of recession proof in a sense. So when we look at their stock, we see it's down 50%. Yes, there is some sort of re-pricing, but for the core overall business, we actually think that it's completely oversold. And there's a really, really strong case for them to rebound, especially when we start to look at their numbers and we look at how they're growing usership, how they're growing revenues. A lot of what's going on right now is just given doesn't matter what sector you're in. Doesn't matter what you name you are. There's just broad base selling across the board. And it honestly creates really good opportunities for companies that have been unfairly sold off in the last few months.
And it's even greater now, considering that one of the main reasons that Match Group is so low right now is because of the lawsuit they're currently engaging against Google. The reason that it's even as low as it is today is because Google filed a countersuit on Monday, to give you a quick background Match Group is one of those cool companies that's badass enough to sue Google and Apple over antitrust reasons for how insane app store fees and how app store fee structuring can be. I'm not going to bore you with the details or anything, but it's awesome that Match filed that lawsuit back in April. But of course, Google filed it back with countersuit that while not quite BS is frivolous at best and just more of a part of Google's defense strategy. So people obviously flee that. So it's a good temporary headwind right now to consider a buying opportunity if you want to sort of ride the wave back up, especially considering that even with these lawsuits Match is going to grow no matter what.
Tinder has already taken over the world and Match has masterfully separated Hinge from Tinder as the contrasting app, they don't have the same global reach as Tinder, but they're going to spend the next two to five years giving Hinge that global growth. So it's really exciting to sort of have the two hands of Match Group, be the sort of masters of the dating pool. And that's not even considering all the niche stuff. I'm still looking into the numbers on Bumble. There's still not enough data for us to know if they're good. They're the number two, Tinder's number one, Hinge is number three and Bumble, another independent publicly traded company is number two in America right now, a lot of strong numbers there, but not really not enough to sort of make a trend in terms of where they're going.
So dating is honestly a really interesting sector. And Match is definitely the master of it. So something to definitely consider if you're sort of looking for more cautious plays that have sort of the SAS multiple, have a lot of really good op opportunities, because again, all their tailwinds, all their headwinds right now are onerous at best and short term at most. This is one of those companies that gets exposed as a really well managed business, especially with how they're managing their growth in downturn times. And for me, that's what's exciting about this sort of recessionary period, because we're going to go into tech running season next week y'all and it's going to ... If you look at the noise from the media, it's going to be potentially scary, but what's going to happen is we're going to see who the real businesses are. Who the real long term players are.
We're going to get the wheat from the chaff separated, we're going to have bad management exposed, good management rewarded, and overall, you're going to see a lot of really strong growth on the back end of this. So I'm not excited for this because obviously we have to talk when these darkened dons about recessions and obviously people are going to be worried and it's just a generally worse time to be a person in any economy. But it's also really great to see who's going to be able to survive this, who has the strength to survive this, it's a great evolutionary pressure on all of these companies, right?
So genuinely I'm excited for it. Justin, you did mention how other sectors that do well during these recessionary periods. You mentioned alcohol, tobacco, a couple of others, which is really interesting because we have a new tool out Justin that I kind of obsessively check every day. And I've been noticing politicians are selling a lot of tobacco stock right now, which has me kind of curious. So rather than talk about that, what I want to talk about real quick is our new politician insider dashboard. Can you kind of take me through our thoughts on sentiment and why we're looking at what politicians are buying and selling in terms of the stock market?
Yeah. So before I get into it, I just want to preface that once you use this tool, while it's very helpful, but no one should be making investment decisions based off what politicians are seeing. It's a helpful tool, you understand what they're looking at, but effectively what we did was create this tool that updates every single day, that pulls in information on members of Congress and what they're buying and selling. And so in case you missed it over the last few years, there's been a lot of news surrounding Nancy Pelosi and other famous politicians in their portfolio and how well the stocks they've bought and sold have performed. And so the running joke, not a joke to some extent, has been that they have inside information and they're trading ahead and blah, blah, blah, blah, blah.
So on and so forth follows. So what most investors want to see is what are they buying? What are they selling? What information do they have? Where do they see like the world going based on the rules and walls that they're setting up? I mean, there is a tremendous influence. So what we did, and it's on our website right now, whether you're paying user or free you have access to it, but you can effectively see what stocks are being bought, what stocks are being sold, you can see how much, how little, what day, and you can just use this as an interactive tool to understand more or less what are the popular stocks that politicians are buying, selling. Again, I wouldn't buy and sell strictly off this list that you're seeing here, but it's a really good way to just kind of be like, Hey, I like energy, is energy stocks being bought up by politicians, are they being sold? And you can just use this as a helpful tool to kind of add on top of the analysis you do today for whatever stocks you're buying or selling.
And then to just add to a little color of their audience, it's not just Nancy Pelosi, Nancy Pelosi tends to be the actual joke, but the real sort of moment where people used Congress as [inaudible 00:22:01] information was actually based on the trades made by Kelly Loffler at the beginning of March in 2020, when she basically sold off a huge amount of her portfolio after being on a committee that was privy to information about the COVID 19 pandemic before shit really hit the fan. So it's one of those things where that kind of started the contagion, but it's kind of morphed around. So I just want to give you that context as well, while you're not always going to get insider information and again, should use it as more of a supplementary tool and kind of like a curiosity object.
It's a great way to measure sentiment, especially in people who may have a lot more information. And also people who are at the top of the pile so to speak, right? So I'm really excited to use it. It gives me new insights every day. I'm trying to figure out why a congress person bought 300,000 dollars worth of PayPal stock. That one doesn't make much sense to me, but it's enough to make me curious enough to inform the research I do. I'm not going to buy more PayPal stock based on the information alone. I want to see if I can find a why there, and if there's a there, maybe I'll add to my PayPal position or mostly where it goes, but it's honestly a really great tool. And I'm really excited to see all of these sentiment dashboards we're heading in.
And we also have an analyst sentiment dashboard for basically the whole ... Not the S&P 500, but the Russell 1000. And it's good to see how the market feels about these various stocks, because again, the stock market is made out of people and as fundamentals get compressed and as earnings get compressed as well, audience sentiment becomes even more important. Remember, the stock market isn't this magic thing that makes companies go up and down based on objectively good or bad management. The stock market is made out of people and in billions of individual decisions made every day by very wealthy people, very wealthy hedge fund managers, as well as retail investors. And so all of those fundamentals, you're seeing kind of add up to sentiment being a little tiny bit overweighted during this period, since we're going to see a lot of very emotional rash decisions, but I'm really excited that we have all of these tools available.
So you can kind of see which way the wind is blowing in the sentiment situation. And so as we're getting to the back half of it here, Justin, it's just one of those things where we're watching sentiment, we're watching the recession. I guess we also have to get into the news real fast. We've given Elon Musk a break real quick, but I guess real fast when we're at the back end here, audience is asking about it, just in your thoughts on the Twitter situation, Elon Musk is trying to back out of the deal. Twitter's going to sue him into oblivion. Is Elon Musk going to pay a billion dollars or is he potentially on the hook for way more than one billion? Is he going to be forced to buy this company?
Yeah. I mean, it's really always fun to watch what he's doing. It's just pure entertainment at this point.
As somebody who's done super well buying Tesla pre 2019, it does have me a little nervous thinking about what it's going to do to Tesla stock if he's forced to buy. Not necessarily super valuable social media play based off of collateral from his Tesla stock, gives me a little bit of bad vibes, but that's just me being worrying, that's my own selfish perspective.
Yeah. Unless there's any insight that I'm not aware of, it's so hard to say how it will play out, they'll bring it to court, they'll be back and forth, there'll probably be a settlement in some capacity. I mean, this is going to get dragged out and it's just more PR for Elon, helps out as other companies, helps out recruiting, the guy's just a fricking magnet for attention right now. I don't think there's a ton to say there for where we see this going on. I'm not sure your thoughts?
That's the main thing. The only thing that we have from this is that Elon's not going away and we're going to hear about this. We're going to getting hot takes for it until at least 2025. It's Delaware court, Delaware court moves slow, but they're pretty methodical about it. It's one of those things where I honestly have no idea, it's one of the three options, the only two real options are Elon Musk magic's his way out of it by invoking Texas citizenship or whatever, or some ridiculous thing where Twitter is able to make him pay something between a difference between 44 billion and the actual stock price of Twitter now, because the main thing is 44 billion is a ridiculous price to pay for Twitter. 15 billion dollars over asking price at this point. And so he's not going to pay one billion.
He's not going to pay 44 billion, but he is going to pay a certain amount, but not in any feasible timeframe. This is never going to stop. It's one of those amazing moments in American life where nothing really ever ends. It just gets louder and weirder as we move on. So I'm excited for that. I'm excited for it to get weird, but don't anticipate Twitter stock popping off when Elon has to pay them a ridiculous fee. And don't anticipate this driving down Tesla stock as Elon decouples himself more and more from the Tesla brand the kind of the same way he did for SpaceX. So, honestly, it's just another big question mark, but it's one of those things where it's never going to resolve.
You're going to be hearing about this until maybe the 2030s. I don't want to doom say or anything, but it's a wild time. But that does get us right at the very end here, I don't want to like give that too much time to that, Justin Kramer, obviously a pretty wild time here in the markets. I want to make sure anything else you wanted to cover before we go ahead and read credits here. You know, I'm amazed we covered as much as we did during only 30 minutes, but I want to make sure we didn't miss anything.
No, I think that's most of it. I mean, the only other thing to watch right now is some of the stuff in the crypto space. We're seeing a lot of people start to go belly ups walk, go bankrupt. I mean, this is just the beginning I think. When you're over leveraged, you're betting your entire company on NASA that is fluctuating in value like crazy, repercussions are going to come. And so I'm sure the companies who were doing this knew what they were doing is the risk they were taking, get hopefully very wealthy and make a lot of people money along the way, but this is going to be the fallout. So I think there's going to be more and more of this stuff you see in the crypto space, unless all of a sudden asset prices reverse tomorrow, which we've been saying for months we don't see coming anytime soon.
And I agree, and it's one of those things, audience I want y'all to keep in mind that we are trying to genuinely unravel the insane web of who owes, who what money and who's going to go down next if there's any other really interesting situations coming out, it's a genuinely insane mess of different companies kind of tangled up together while we kind of watch FTX sort of JP Morganafiy, the whole economy. The only thing is that this is a really wild, like 1900 to 1929 speed run happening in the crypto space, which I think is awesome. So regulation is definitely coming, but it's one of those things where one day we will have a whole podcast about this, once my insane conspiracy theory map in my office is complete and I'm able to help y'all make sense of it because the interconnectivity here based on FTX is just bonkers. But either way, Justin Kramer, chief analyst, co-founder here at Moby.co really appreciate your time.
Really appreciate all your questions. Make sure as always you're following us here on discord. If you're listening to this on your podcast app, please make sure you're like and subscribing on Apple podcast, Spotify, wherever you get your podcasts through, however, you do that. Subscribe to us on YouTube. We're going to be doing a lot more work on TikTok these days as well. We're going to be getting daily updates about various stocks and various market moves out there as well. Also make sure you're follow us there as well. Otherwise audience, thank you so much for listening. And just so you know, this podcast was produced, hosted, and voiced by me, Peter Starr Northrop, all of the intellectual advice, not advice, but sort of intellectual information here comes from our analyst team, which is led by Justin Kramer, our CEO co-founder and chief analyst. If you here other questions for us, you can us up here at discord or [email protected] As always, but for now audience, it's a pretty good place to leave it, so as always, I like to leave with peace, love, and incremental gains. Everyone be well, thank you so much.