Flagship Pod: Earnings, Inflation, War & More!Jul 24, 2022
Every single Thursday we host a live discussion in our Discord channel at 5:00pm EST.
This gives you the opportunity to ask us questions and hear our thoughts on the things you want answers to!
Here's what we went over:
Why some institutions are getting hammered by inflation while others thrive
A quick peek into this upcoming week’s Big Tech earnings run
What energy prices mean for airlines and auto stocks
- How warfare and defense spending will change forever!
How investors can view Tesla’s strong earnings in light of Elon and Twitter getting a court date
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Check out the rest of the transcript below!
From Moby.co, this is The Flagship Pod, a weekly live podcast about the stock market, the economy, and the various market forces powering the world around you. As always, I'm your host, Peter Starr, bringing you this time, honestly, kind of a toss-up week. We expected earning season to start off with a little bit more bear sentiment than it did, and after a couple of banks reported a little bit negative earnings, we've seen a lot of sideways and if not that positive motion during this first half of earning season.
Of course, the big leagues of earning season starts next week when we have the likes of Microsoft, Meta, Microsoft and Apple going out. A lot of really interesting things happening in the market. A lot of really interesting long tail stuff. What's really exciting about bear markets is you'd start to see a lot of future planning from some of the big players and a lot of consolidation in the smaller players. We're beginning to see a lot of those rumblings happening right now.
To take me through the complicated situation here we have on the bear market side, as always, I'm joined by Justin Kramer, CEO, co-founder and chief analyst here at Moby.co. Justin, man, what's good, dude? How are you parsing the markets right now? Kind of wild, honestly, right?
Yeah. It's pretty nuts. Obviously had a great start to the week relative to what's been going on this year, so a lot of people have been asking us, are we out? Is this the end? Stocks also are up again today. We'll get into all those questions and answers and more, but yeah, hopefully this is the start of something good, but yeah, let's get into it and we can get through the specifics.
Exactly. I guess main thing is a lot of us here, specifically in the Discord, were really expecting Tesla to go down much further than it did after earnings yesterday. But the only real news out of Tesla is actually just a slight decrease in margins per vehicle which when you're Tesla, you can afford, because they went from like 30% down to 27% margin, and still makes them the highest margin auto maker, but aside from Lamborghini by far, right?
Looking at that, is this something where we're seeing Q2 not being as bearish as we expect Q3 to be? Is this one of those things where we're not really seeing all of the recessionary/inflationary pressure hit yet? Are we going to see the real nightmare beginning Q3? How do you parse this when you see things like Tesla and Netflix earnings come out?
Yeah. It's interesting. For Netflix, I mean, they're in an odd spot given where they sit. They're still losing a million subscribers a quarter and it's baked in. So when they lost 970K this quarter, instead of a million, and the stock goes up, it really goes to show you where they're at. For Tesla, what they're doing unique and they've been doing it for a while, is trying to vertically integrate, not have to worry about other people.
If this supply gate chain gets stunted, inflation goes up, at least they can own parts of it and so their internal costs will go up. Therefore, margins can remain relatively constant. It's a super boring way of basically just saying, Tesla's continuing to do it better than everyone else. They'll inevitably run into more problems as they continue to scale with a lot of upfront costs. But this real fear of a recession is very precautionary.
No one knows if it'll come, when it'll come, but people are just starting to prepare, so everyone's cutting spending, cutting back other things, which subsequently hurts them. But if you look at the actual economic conditions, things are still pretty good. I mean, jobless claims and unemployment's starting to pick back up, but they're still relative to history, really solid.
You look at wage growth, you look at economic output, the numbers are still relatively good, but everyone is just really scared of the forward-looking consequences.
Exactly. It's one of those things where we're seeing a lot of fear, but a lot of that fear being tempered by honestly, the market, like we say, just pricing in inflation. CPI came out last week and then JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley came out as well with negative earnings as those two banks need to be a little bit more defensive just in case there are defaults on loans because of recessionary pressure.
What's interesting is Charles Schwab, Visa, these companies come out and they're honestly doing fairly positively well, because they don't have that same kind of investment pressure. They have just the positive of inflation boosting their revenue. As you look at this, as you look at the inflationary landscape, have we been overworried or is it just that the inflation is as expected? It's all just priced in and now we're just trying to see who's weaker basically.
Yeah. A lot of the inflation is priced in, whether it's in the equity markets or in the crypto markets, a lot of it is priced in at this point. Can it keep sliding down? A hundred percent, but a really cool indicator to look at, which I can't believe I'm saying this is an indicator, was when Elon Musk comes out and they say Tesla sold 75% of their Bitcoin and the price doesn't really budge.
Historically, he does anything, whether it's positive or negative and Bitcoin reacts accordingly, the fact that they sold off millions and millions and millions or hundreds of millions of dollars of Bitcoin and the price didn't move, just shows you how much this stuff is priced in at this point. Tesla buying or selling Bitcoin shouldn't be a barometer for how the actual crypto will do. It's just really interesting using that as an analogy to know where we are in the cycle right now.
Inflation is actually starting to calm down. I know the 9.1 print scared a lot of people, but when you take out energy, right now the rest of core inflation is starting to actually track back down, which a lot of people weren't reporting on. Energy is continuing to be a supply chain issue, a production issue, constraint issue. I mean, those are things that just need to work itself out, but actual core inflation in the U.S. is starting to come back down so the outlook is starting to change a little bit.
It's still too early to say if this is the bottom, but I think as we cautioned, as we told a lot of our premium members and other people who've been following a while, back in December, we thought that first half year would be really rough. It obviously was very rough. The second half of the year we'd start to see a recovery. I don't necessarily think we're there yet and a positive week in the markets doesn't mean that we're going to be flying the other way, but as we've been telling everyone timing the market is impossible.
No one can do it, so the best thing you can do is put a little bit of money in every single month and be able to dollar cost average yourself down so that when things do rebound, you're able to ultimately capture the upside. Because one thing we can say pretty confidently is that when it does rebound, it's going to be a sharp rebound and it's going to rebound fast. If you're not invested, you're going to be upset.
Timing the absolute bottom should not be your goal. What you should be doing is trying to get close to the bottom and buying on the way down. So that even if it slides another 10% down, when it goes 100% up, at least you captured 90% of the upside versus trying to time the bottom, missing it and missing 100% of the upside. That should be the goal right now.
If we are or aren't at the bottom, I don't think is the right question. The right question is, are we close? I think we are relatively close.
Exactly. Audience, if you want the opposite view, the only other argument we can possibly make, that anyone can possibly make is that what you're seeing right now is a classic bear market, which is an extended, very slow drawdown in the markets. It's going to be really hard to tell whether that's a very slow bear market being lifted by a minor bear market rally by just slightly better than expected news, or if this was just an overblown tech recession. I'll get into that thesis in just a second.
Theory one is we're very close to the bottom and we're going to really test that bottom once we get earnings data from Facebook, Google, and all of them next week. The other thesis is that we're not going to see the bottom until we get Q3 earnings in October when people freak out about how expensive things were to get revenue in during Q3. Regardless, it's still a classic recession rather than like a once-in-a-generation type deal.
If you look at the other side, what this is more or less looking like, if you are a premium member of Moby.co and you're reading our research, as we break down the CPI, and as we break down how the market is digesting earnings, what you're beginning to see is that rather than this being classic broad-base inflation, what this is, is inflation being driven primarily by energy, housing and food prices.
Therefore, it is inflation of necessities, i.e., inflation that disproportionately affects people on the bottom half of the economic scale here in America, the bottom maybe 70%. Meanwhile, it's a recession for just tech workers, because the only place you're seeing layoffs are in these high-growth tech companies. You're seeing Tesla freeze hiring, Google just announcing that it's going to freeze hiring, Facebook, Amazon.
Every big tech company that took the huge amount of cash that came out during the bull run post-2020, now freezing all of that hiring or laying off sort of their bottom 20% now that they can fuel huge amounts of rocket fuel. That's a very interesting tale of two cities, right? Because what you're seeing is only the majority of the bottom half of the economy getting really affected by inflation because it's just necessities while consumer spending still stays up if you look at Visa and Charles Schwab's recent earnings reports.
Meanwhile, only folks in the tech scene are getting laid off, which is neither here and nor there. It's still difficult, but it's like a white collar recession whereas recessions we've dealt with in 2020 and 2008 were very much either broad-based economy recessions or blue collar recessions. Honestly, just really interesting to see that dichotomy too, and really interesting to see it play out.
Justin, when you look at that and you look at the strategy here, is it just DCA all the way, since we're either in the very beginning 20% of the downturn, or about to enter into the actual bottom, or is there any other way to play it besides just making small moves to make sure that you're ahead of the bottom as we either really quickly approach it or very slowly approach a higher bottom than we are currently realizing?
I think the things you need to be doing is not necessarily outside of dollar cost averaging, actively making any moves. I think what we should be looking at is stocks that are severely, severely depressed whose long-term outlooks are intact. Everyone looks back and says, "Hey, I wish I got involved. This was so obvious. Next time it comes around, do it." Well, next time around is now.
There are stocks that are down 85/90% from their all-times highs and maybe they don't regain that all-time high over the next five, 10 years because valuations were so ridiculous but even if they gain 50% of that all-time high relative to the price they're at now, the upside is insane. Again, as a long-term investor this one of the benefits we get.
If we fundamentally believe in a company and it's down huge, even if it takes five, 10 years for it to rebound, well, you're getting it at rock bottom prices. You're not getting it at another time. Rather than saying, "I'm going to dollar cost average down." This is just the time to get it at the rock bottom relative to what it could be in like 10 years. Like Twilio's stock, we recommended, it did terrible.
The rest of the tech names will not try and hide from that at all, but what we do know is that it's down huge and the valuation it is now versus what it could be in a decade from now is so severely misaligned that we just know it's such a good opportunity that even if it takes a while to regain its recent top, at the very least, there's severe upside relative to it is whereas now.
It doesn't matter what asset you are, what class you're in, stocks are just getting discriminated against regardless of sectors. It honestly creates a good buying opportunity, so when this ultimate rebound comes, who knows? But I think more importantly is just be able to look at the positions you have, if you fundamentally believe in it, add to it.
If you don't, you can choose to sell it but this is that kind of once-in-a-generational sell-off that presents buying opportunities that in a few years from now, you'll wish you got involved, but probably didn't because it is scary buying when things are going down.
That's a really good point too. The only risk, audience... Because I know you hear that and you think, "Okay. This is the bottom. This is the historic moment. What's the counterargument there?" I'm only providing this to be a contrarian. The only real risk to that idea that this being the bottom is that you're just never going to see tech companies achieve the truly ridiculous price-to-earnings ratios they did during the 2011 to 2020, nine-year Neo Gilded Age.
You'll just never see the market believe that tech companies are worth their truly ridiculous valuations. Now, we could get there again, but even if we get halfway back there, that's still getting an astonishing return on your investment in terms of not quite timing the bottom, but making sure that you're adding to your tech positions now as they continue their slide.
That slide could continue for only just the next three months. It can continue for the next six months, but odds are, we're either approaching the bottom or not going as far down as we recognize. Keep that in mind, you know?
Yeah. The thing to watch for too is the feds not being accommodative. If you're wondering why this bubble burst that Peter is referring to, it's like, yes, we had this 10-year period where everyone knew things were overvalued, but it didn't matter because inflation was low, interest rates were low and monetary policy was very accommodative. But for the first time in a decade, things changed and because interest rates go up, those future cash flows become severely worthless for a handful of reasons.
Yes, while rates are rising, it's going to be hard for these things to resume their ridiculous valuations they were for the last 10 years, but rates will reverse at some point. They're not going to go up forever. At some point, the economy's going to get stronger. Inflation's going to go down and the fed is going potentially to get us out of a recession that they put us in, have to start lowering rates and stimulating the economy again.
This is just part of economic cycles. As rates go down, things will be valued at higher for the same exact earnings and revenue ratio. I mean, it's a long-winded way of saying this stuff works in decades, not years, not even months. The only way to really build wealth in public equities is to think like this. Day trading, it's going to be a losing game in the long run.
It's like going to the casino. You can put a hundred bucks on black and win and walk out a big winner, but we both know if you go to the casino every day for a year, you're going to end up losing.
Although, I will say it, if you have retested the bottom a few times, and you've been two years into a bowl run, day trading can be extremely fun. It's very addictive. Got to-
Oh, definitely fun.
Yeah. Yeah. Fun. Not advisable, but I mean, if you have cash to burn, there's worse ways to burn it, let me tell you what. Anyway, Justin, let's drill down and get a little granular here so we're not talking in too broad terms. One company we've been really excited about that's approaching its bottom, we may have actually been a little bit too early in not necessarily calling its bottom, but saying it's a good time to buy is Delta.
We put out research right before their earnings call saying, "Hey, Delta's looking extraordinarily undervalued." Then Delta's like, "Hey, our margins are still getting hit pretty hard." Their stock value went down a little bit further post that. Looking at that two-day delta between your analysis and Delta's earnings call, how's the brand looking now in terms of inflation?
Fuel costs, obviously hitting them pretty hard as well as just overall inflation impacting them across the board. How's the Delta brand looking? How the Delta valuation looking in terms of, are they approaching a bottom or are they still a good buy?
Yeah. I think they are approaching a bottom. They've been on a slide ever since April so it's been roughly a year, so obviously timing the absolute bottom is the theme of this conversation today is near impossible. But I think this is really time to potentially start initiating more of a position in Delta. There's a handful of reasons. I think without spending the next 10 to 15 minutes talking about what those reasons are, let's just highlight the three most important things we're looking at.
One, exactly your point is jet fuel. Jet fuel has been on the rise for a while, but it's actually down 20 to 30% since its peak earlier this year. Jet fuel is starting to come back down, which is acting as a tailwind for Delta, which has been a headwind for the last year. Even though they've been able to pass on a lot of these costs to their consumers, they're ultimately just like, "It's not good for anyone."
What's really exciting is seeing this continued resurgence of travel. Everything that we talk about in travel is relative to pre-pandemic. Obviously a lot more people were traveling then so we're always talking about it as a percentage of what it is pre-pandemic. Corporate travel was restored by over 75% last quarter. This quarter, it's up to 80%, which is only on 65% volume, which shows the pricing power that Delta has.
Then international travel last quarter was at 50% restored and now it's actually looking to be at 60%... or sorry, 65% through the end of the year and 60% of total bookings for international are already sold. Again, we're still at pre-2019 levels for Delta specifically, but they're actually starting to rebound pretty significantly.
If the trend continues, there's no reason that in 2023 and 2024, they won't be able to surge past what they were pre-pandemic, which if we think about it, it's pretty insane, considering there is definitely a pandemic still going on. Really speaks to the strength of Delta's demand and brand.
Then past that as fuel prices come down, this is going to be huge for Delta as well to increase margins. They won't have to necessarily cancel as many flights, which has been in the headlines everywhere. They've already had in the first 11 days of the month, 99% of flights arriving on time and not being canceled. There was a lot of things working against them over the last quarter or two, but fuel costs are coming down.
Cancellations and staffing. Staffing's going up, cancellations are going down and we're starting to continuously see this recovery for their travel, both domestically and internationally. Yes, could the stock price keep falling? A hundred percent. But I think given where they are now at a $20 billion valuation, it's starting to make a lot of sense to get involved.
I mean, Rivian, which obviously has a much larger upside is worth 30 billion. If we're talking about how things are really valued, I mean, Delta is definitely below what it should be.
Absolutely. We will have more of a thesis on Rivian maybe next week as we reexamine the EV market, but let's stay on the topic of jet fuel real fast because one thing that's being super underreported... Well, one thing that was overreported on the negative side and now being underreported on the positive side is that last week the Nord Stream one pipeline from Russia to Germany was shut down, which absolutely spiked natural gas prices on fears that even though the pipeline was being shut down for routine maintenance, there was some market concerns that Putin would just be like, "Oh, sorry, it's still broken. Got to keep it off. Sorry." That sort of thing.
The fact that it's back on is going to have a lot of relief on European energy prices. It's not nearly going to go down to pre-war levels, but the fact that there's still some level of playing ball is absolutely huge. You are already seeing oil prices go down a little bit. You're going to see them go down more, but that still gets to this overall macro narrative, Justin, that you and I have been very lightly talking about in the off times we're not talking about individual stocks and individual moments within the U.S. economy.
That's this idea of isolationism and defense on these... Isolationism and not the breakdown of the global order, but you're seeing a lot of defensive investment from various world economies on the energy and defense side. Can you take me through that? What's going on in terms of globalization getting tested right now?
Yeah. I mean, the energy price is good. I thought you brought up a really good point about the pipeline going on. I mean, right now we talked about this yesterday, there's just not enough energy being produced a lot of countries are starting to get very defensive in how they produce energy. For example, like in Europe, they get a lot of their natural gas from Russia, as you mentioned. So when they start shutting off natural gas, they start shutting off oil exports, it just creates these shortages and so countries become very dependent on other countries.
Now they're reinvesting in infrastructure to become more self-sufficient, but such a multi-year project and doesn't help in the short run that it's going to continuously push prices in the wrong direction. It looks like Russia is starting to export more of their natural gas and oil, which is good for prices. A lot of this just comes down to the geopolitical, which is really tough to say, but at least domestically for us in here in the U.S. it's a little bit better of a situation that the U.S. is sitting on massive oil reserves.
They're able to leverage a lot of the oil that they produce internally for our capabilities here. That's why, yes, gas at five bucks sucks but if you look at Europe, gas is like 7, 8, 9, $10. It's a lot worse over there. Fortunately we're in a better position, but still in a poor position overall. We still import a lot of gas from Canada and other parts of the world. Unlike what people will have you believe, oil is not oil. What I mean by that is there's different types of oil. There's different types of refineries that refine those different types of oil.
So while we do produce a ton of oil, all the refineries here in the U.S. are not set up for all the oil we produce here. Long story short, we are not self-sufficient. We need to also rely on other countries, but ultimately we're in a much better position than others. Same thing with the defense outside of that. Think military and all those things, we're in a much better position there as well.
That's one of those things where we're going to see a lot of improvement as well. It's one of those things where you're seeing an extremely complicated narrative. If you want to see a better breakdown of that, another one of our analysts, Moby meme guy actually, did a pretty good breakdown of what's happening with oil prices on both our Instagram and our TikTok, if you want a better understanding of what's happening.
If we are so desperate with high gas prices, why are we exporting 8.6 million barrels of oil? Which is just basically because we are on an open market and if we just only... We're isolationist entirely. We pissed off a lot of people, but at least we make our gas prices relatively cheaper, but then potentially spike everything else. Pretty complex. What's good is that it's finally starting to trend in the right direction, but obviously there's still a lot of supply chain issues that we have to be concerned about.
There's always going to be COVID concerns that could blow up those supply chains. But overall, energy is trending in the right direction, which if it does, means we'll see inflation start trending in the right direction. The main encouragement the market is seeing is that the 9.1% inflation we saw was based on data from June, while gas prices were beginning to go down by the end of June into the middle of July where we are now.
We're really excited to see next month's CPI Print be at least a little bit lower and potentially signal that inflation did peak with this last CPI. Again, we'll see, because there's no way to predict this. There's a lot of other factors that can affect what's going on here. It's not just energy prices pushing inflation up. It's all of these complicated interactions within our global supply chain.
Getting to the back half of this, I guess Justin the main thing... One thing I'm really excited about talking about now, I'm going to preview this for next week probably is as this bear market narrative matures, we're going to enter into something called consolidation season, where you're going to see bigger companies with slightly better management start gobbling up littler ones or smaller players begin to combine together. It's something that happens during every downturn.
This is why, audience, you're getting two perspectives always from Moby.co. You're getting the analytical perspective from folks like our chief analyst, Justin Kramer, and you're going to get more of the journalistic perspective from folks like me. Journalists can smell the air and see what's happening on the consolidation side, whereas analysts can predict the beginning, middle and end of various actual market cycles and give you balls and strikes in a company-by-company basis.
I'm very excited for some consolidations that may be happening in healthcare, but I'm not going to talk about that till I've done a little bit more research and run it by the analysis team. For now though, Justin, we've been talking about defense, so can you give us, with the last couple of minutes we have here, a preview on what you've been seeing on the Lockheed Martin side of things as we think about defense?
Yeah, totally. I think we touched upon on that last piece, but I think I'm happy to elaborate more there. Basically right now, Lockheed Martin, for those of you who don't know is this massive defense contractor in the U.S.. I think it ties in really nicely to what we were just talking about, and this is really big point to take home for how the world's going to react over the next several years. Basically we have this era where everyone is isolated in terms of countries, then everyone's interconnected.
Not that everyone is isolated, but people realize the dangers of being interconnected and not being self-sufficient. So countries like the United States is looking to completely overhaul how they import energy, how they import all the goods they need for the purpose of having a more sustainable nation that doesn't rely on others. Then is ultimately less of a national security threat. Specifically within that defense, our military is a massive piece that the Pentagon is looking at.
What we're seeing right now is they're actually undertaking a generational investment as they're gearing up for this fight of the future, which we'll call it. This hasn't been seen in a while. We think that will ultimately provide Lockheed and a lot of these defense contractors with multi-year growth for defense in a way they've never seen before. This is irrespective of whatever happens in the Ukraine.
We're just really seeing this strong area for companies like Lockheed, for Palo Alto Networks, as the U.S. looks to shore up its defensive capabilities. The reason being as I mentioned is this isolationism. This narrow [inaudible 00:26:14] on the Ukraine and risks and overwhelming dynamics at play in defense and decades of focus on counter-terrorism and counterinsurgency and this repeated deferral of modernization, that is the reason the Pentagon is just taking this massive investment as it shifts its attention to China and Russia and other competition like that.
So a lot of these systems are going to be completely modernized. They're buying new physical goods like planes and tanks. They're buying new cybersecurity. I mean, they're just ripping out a lot of things that are just mountains of tech debt. We're going to come up with a lot of different picks on this, but Lockheed, which we're going to be releasing next week, is a pick that we are really bullish on. We actually saw the Pentagon signed into an agreement with them for over 15 to 17 F-35s and a bunch of other planes.
Long story short, I think this is a brand new major theme for us, is this idea notion of the complete overhaul of the U.S. government in terms of the infrastructure. So Lockheed is one of them, and this is going to be a big theme for us over the next several years.
Regardless though, it is a very interesting period because not only is this period of the war of the future unprecedented, but if we allow ourselves to go back to the nature of conflict that happened let's say the late 19th and early 20th centuries, that would be the actual apocalypse. What's very interesting to see is beyond the Cold War, what we're going to be doing in terms of maintaining growth and self-sufficiency across all of these nations, as we move into this very bizarre future where our global world order was very massively tested by this pandemic.
Regardless, it's a very interesting time, but the thing we're going to be the most interested in moving forward is just watching how the world economy has reacted to our food supply, our energy supply, and all of our necessities being really heavily hammered by both supply chain woes, and then a completely unnecessary and random war that happened in Eastern Europe.
A lot of echoes are going to be happening for years to come, but you can still watch the narrative as they play out on a month-by-month basis. Regardless folks, we are here a little bit over time. Justin Kramer, CEO, and co-founder here at Moby.co, any final thoughts before we go ahead and read the credits here? Again, I'm amazed this was 30 minutes, but you know how it goes.
Yeah. A hundred percent. No, I think it's good. There's a lot of topics that we only scratched the surface on. If you guys want more details, definitely head to the site. We write up Delta, Lockheed, a lot of these stocks in a lot more detail. Definitely employ you to check it out. Whether you're a paid member or free, there's a lot of free resources and we're going to be opening up a lot more for our free users soon to add value there as well.
Yeah, like I said, if there's any other questions, definitely go there. If not, obviously join the Discord. If you're listening to us on a later version, ask us questions. We're always more than happy to jump in.
Has to be Lockheed, right? Anyway, audience, thank you so much for hanging out with us here. Thank you so much for your questions as well, and thank you so much for your perspective as we move forward here and begin to understand the true nature of this bear market. Again, it's really looking like, again, unprecedented. Every single economic moment has a lot of really interesting foibles. Yeah. Justin, you just sent me a message. The answer is yes, I am very much in that line of things. Did not start, but did consolidate.
Anyway, the main idea here is, audience, stick to the course. This is not going to be something historic like 2008, but it is going to be historic in the sense that no confluence of factors has ever played out like this before. It can be either very short and overblown, which may be happening right now, or could be a little bit longer, but not as bad as people are predicting. Regardless, stick to your plan, stay consistent. The only way to lose this game is to be a forced seller.
Avoid leverage for the time being, avoid most crypto for the time being. We're going to have another report on what speculation we're doing on the back end here as we watch either the very beginning or tail end of crypto winter. Regardless, audience, if you ever have any questions for us, you can hit us up here in Discord or email us at [email protected]. Regardless, audience, I really appreciate your time. This is a pretty solid place to end it though.
Just so you know, this podcast was produced, hosted and voiced by me, all of our intellectual value here at customer analyst team led by Justin Kramer, CEO and co-founder here at Moby.co. If you have any questions for us, hit us up at [email protected]. Otherwise, we really appreciate your time and as always, we'd like to leave you with peace, love and incremental gains. Everyone, be well, thank you so much.