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Everything you need to know this week

market & industry analysis Nov 01, 2021

We're bringing you all the news you need to know for this week. This report contains news on the most important IPO this week, the crypto world & earnings news. We've highlighted the most important topics in each section!


Crypto News:

Shiba Inu (SHIB) crosses into the top 10 most popular coins! 

This probably comes to no surprise, but guess what? We're shorting the coin.

This may be blasphemous to some but let's be real here. If you've followed crypto for some time now, a run up this large, in a coin that is nothing but a meme, can't last forever. While the coin may very well keep going up, once it crashes, it's going to come down hard and you don't want to be the one left standing in the dust.

But guess which coins actually are shining over the last year? Bitcoin, Ethereum & Solana. People always want the next SHIB, but the real way to accumulate wealth in this space is to hold onto the coins that have and will continue to show merit.

Bitcoin can really sky past 100k, Ethereum past 10k and Solana past 1k in the next 12 months!

While plenty of other coins will do very well, most them come with an insane amount of risk. And when looking at your returns, and factoring in risk, there are no 3 better coins than these in terms of pure upside with minimal risk over the next several years.

However, having said that, there is money to be made trading coins on a day to day basis. If you do want access to our daily crypto trades, be sure to join our FREE discord channel where we give you all this and more. Just join here -> Crypto Discord Channel



Most Important IPO This Week:


Nerdwallet (NRDS): 

Founded in 2009 by Tim Chen and Jacob Gibson, Nerdwallet is a personal finance website and app that earns money by promoting financial products to its users. Nerdwallet's brand value is built off of their "honesty" and over the years they've helped many people become more financial savy.

However, the validity of their statements have been called into question of the years as there is an inherent problem with taking money and providing recommendations - look no further than the rating agencies and mortgage back securities in the mid-2000's.

While we could literally talk about that for weeks, Nerdwallet's IPO is getting the bulk of this post's attention. Regardless of how you feel about their business practices, Nerdwallet is currently in a very interesting position.

This is because growth has been relatively slow over the last few years but over the last 9 months, it shot up 49% YoY!

Compared with 2020 annual growth, growth then was only 7%. So this leaves us asking, "Is this new growth sustained or is it a blimp on the radar due to the finance popularity tailwinds many companies are experiencing right now?"

Digging deeper into the numbers, our bet is going to be against NerdWallet. While they are a stock that Robinhood is offering to their users, we're against their business model over the longer term. While we would not be surprised to see the stock pop extremely hard on IPO day, we think over a multi-year period that the company will not be a shining star.

The main reasons are due to their operating margins and $5B valuation. For a stock that has a lower potential ceiling, a valuation that rich is extremely expensive relative to their current projected revenues for 2022 and beyond. 

Additionally for a company that should have higher margins, as their cost of doing business is extremely small, this is another bad sign that the business won't scale.

While we certainly love what they stand for, in practice we think it can be diluted and the business itself doesn't justify the price!



Most Important Companies Reporting Earnings This Week:


Moderna (MRNA), November 4th:


One of the hottest stocks of 2020 has continued its ride up this year as the stock is up 208% YTD!

The stock has certainly cooled off over the last month though as it is down 10% in the last 30 days.

While it has been awhile since we last wrote them up (see the most recent analysis: here), we still are holders of the name. 

Moderna not only will be relevant for years to come due to the COVID vaccine, but they're already proving that they're no one trick pony. Moderna is quickly experimenting with new MRNA treatments and we're anticipating more drugs in their pipeline to be approved within the next few years.

This is a stock we'll surely hold onto for years and are happy to have gotten in last April of 2020!


Ferrari (RACE), November 2nd:  


Did you know that Ferrari has one of the highest margins per car in the entire world? It shouldn't come as a surprise given the price tag of their car but it's still a positive sign regardless.

With the stock up 13% in the last month, it looks like Ferrari is starting to see some tailwinds swing their way. (See our original analysis: here.)

While most people think of them as just a luxury brand, we've noted the changing of the guard with their new CEO. 

With the brand value they've accumulated over the years, they're actually in a solid position to take market share if their CEO is open to scaling the business past the days of old.

Therefore during this earnings call, the most important thing to watch is what their CEO says about the outlook of the company.

We're hoping to get some updates on their EV line as well as any supply shortages for their 2022 goals and beyond. This is a can't miss earnings call!


Conoco Philips (COP), November 2nd


Last we wrote up Conoco Philips (see: here) we were investors in the company as they buying up Shell's oil fields in the Permian Basin.

A month ago they bought 225,000 acres of land for $9.5 billion and that made ConocoPhillips one of the largest oil miners in the world.

The acquisition of Shell's land came at a bargain for Conoco. Each acre of land cost them $15,000 which is substantially cheaper than the $60,000 per acre that Occidental paid for similar land back in 2019.

During this earnings call now, we hope to get an update on the closing of the deal. Since the deal was announced the stock has been up 10% and is up over 100% in the last 12 months!

Energy, financials and other value plays have done extremely well in 2020/2021 and we'll likely see that trend continue into the new year.

We're therefore watching very closely to this earnings call to see if the outlook for the company changes at all - which we don't predict.