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rivian stock

Everything you need to know this week

market & industry analysis Dec 13, 2021

We're bringing you all the news you need to know for this week. This report contains news on the crypto world, stock market & earnings news. We've highlighted the most important topics in each section!

We're skipping the IPO's for the rest of the month, because the end of the year will be quiet. Once January starts, IPO season will be back in play!

As always below is our Youtube video version where we spill even more juicy details!



Most Important Companies Reporting Earnings This Week:


Rivian (RIVN), December 16th: 


Is there any stock more controversial than Rivian right now? When the stock IPO'd in November, it went flying in value topping out at over $100M in market cap and a price of $172.

But fast forward to today and the stock has fell under $100M in total value and is currently trading near $110.

So with so much volatility, many of you are asking how Moby is playing this?

The answer truly depends on your timeline.

If you're a long term investor we absolutely love the stock, even though it's near pre-revenue and insanely overvalued (see why here).

If you're a short term investor it's still hard to get behind the stock given the headwinds affecting growth stocks as well as the insane valuation. While it could easily trend higher, like we said at the top, we're avoiding it for now.

But with their upcoming earnings due later this week, we'll hopefully get some insight from RJ and the team in order to see what their first quarter as a public company looked like.

Right now we're not expecting any substantial change in their outlook but the following items should guide their stock over the next 3-6 months:

  • They are planning to invest their newfound capital in building a battery factory. While this is still early stages, the winner/winners in this space will largely be due to their battery tech. Rivian has and will need to continue to invest in this space in order to remain competitive.
  • Rivian is building a production center in Europe that hopes to be able to produce cars by 2023. During this earnings call, we're hoping to get an update on how this build is going. If they're ahead of schedule this should give some added fuel to their stock price. However, we're anticipating the same projections on their end!
  • The R1S SUV is due to be delivered by the end of the year. Pending any terrible news, this should continue to be the fact. We don't see this as a stock mover, unless production spins widely out of control at the last minute. However if they're able to give updates on pre-orders and shipments for 2022 and beyond, that would help investors be able to project near term revenue. We're likely to get an update and are anticipating bullish sentiment here.

Our Take: Go Premium to Unlock 🔐 

And that is given the size of their total addressable market, the commercial opportunity with support from Amazon is too good to pass up on.

Factor this in on top of the consumer vehicles, and the recurring revenue stream of software plus charging and this EV play is extremely differentiated and attractive.


Lennar Corp (LEN), December 15th:  


Lennar who? Lennar Corp is a home construction and real estate company. In 2017, the company was the largest home construction company in the United States after its purchase of CalAtlantic Homes.

While we've written about them before (check it out here), we're less concerned with the stock itself and are more curious to learn how their new home builds progressed over the last quarter.

The reason we're listening so closely to this is because their numbers, as one of the biggest construction companies in the US, can be used as a proxy to forecast several things. Key within them:

  • Deurbanization: Basically just a fancy word for people leaving cities. In the height of the pandemic this was a huge trend and it caused us to rethink the types of companies that would be prevalent over the longer term. If people were leaving big cities, would companies like Walmart do well? Would shipping and logistic companies also do well as they help connect the remote world? Would tech companies do well as this trend forced WFH adoption? The short answer is that these guesses have more or less all came true. But going forward if this trend continues, and home builds continue to increase, we'll have a better sense of what the world will look like in the future and what companies will be central to it!
  • Inflation & The Real Estate Market: With more homes being built, the needs for raw materials go up. Factoring in supply imbalances, and this alone has the power to force inflation higher! Additionally if new homes cost more to build and more people are leaving cities, then the real estate market can keep being propped up by these macro tailwinds! 

The summary of all this is that Lennar can provide insights into trends and the future of the market moreso than most companies can. By analyzing build numbers we can use those projections to forecast the rest of the global economy.

Our Take: Go Premium to Unlock 🔐 


Adobe (ADBE), December 16th: 


We realize this post has been relatively long so we'll keep this section short and sweet.

Let us preface this section with Adobe has been a beast since they went public as they're up ~287,000% all time and in the last 5 years that growth hasn't slowed down as they're up over 500%

We've said this for years now, we love Adobe - point blank. They grew revenues year over year at ~20% and look to finish 2021 strong as well.

Our Take: Go Premium to Unlock 🔐  



Crypto News:

Solana ($SOL) Falls Out of Top 3 Spot by Market Cap

While volatility continued for the rest of the crypto market last week, the hardest hit was Solana. The token is down nearly 20% over the last week and a half as part of a broader selloff within the crypto space. $SOL has now fallen from the 3rd biggest cryptocurrency by market cap and is now in 5th place behind Tether and Binance coin.

This drop happened because Solana was hit by a DDOS attack last week that is causing competitors to raise questions about Solana's fundamental coding. 

Solana is a much faster network than Ethereum, but it achieves that speed through a few hacks that act like centralization--which could make the token more susceptible to DDOS attacks and undermine it's security as it scales. While it still remains to be seen if these concerns are really valid, this latest attack hit the price hard. We still believe in the token moving forward, but are watching updates closely. 

Since so much changes here day to day make sure, if you want up to date news, trading information and access to our live chat, be sure to join our FREE discord channel where we give you all this and more.

Just join here -> Crypto Discord Channel


Crypto Broadly Stays Choppy as Regulation Worries Grow:

The rest of the crypto market remained down on the month, while the downtrend in Bitcoin and Ethereum appears to finally be stabilizing. 

The downturn is being fueled by a multitude of factors, chief among them being regulation and inflation.

Last month, the US passed an infrastructure bill that had significant new tax rules for digital currencies--which started this selloff. Worries about regulation grew louder last week in the wake of a hearing in congress wherein several crypto company CEOs were called before the House Finance committee to discuss crypto and how the industry can be better regulated. 

While these hearings didn't lead to anything more than awkward moments where lawmakers publicly tried to wrap their heads around crypto -- the hearings were enough to drive sentiment further down. 

Regardless, we're still using this moment to add to our crypto positions rather than cash out. The space still has a lot of growth left, and new tax laws are still two years from going into effect.